A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
